Game Summary

Super Bowl LVIII was a tale of two halves (and an overtime period).

• If you watched the game and would like to skip my telling of it, feel free to move on to the next section.

To say the first half started slowly is an understatement. Both teams traded drives and fumbles, with neither converting any points off their early takeaways. The first points in the game didn’t come until the 2nd quarter, when kicker Jake Moody broke a Super Bowl record by kicking a 55-yard field goal to put the 49ers up 3-0.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense failed to get anything going on offense outside of their big gain to Mecole Hardman, which was followed by a fumble shortly after. To make matters worse, the 49ers pulled off a miraculous trick play with wide receiver Jauan Jennings throwing a touchdown pass to Chirstian McCaffrey to extend the 49ers lead to 10-0. The Chiefs would mount a scoring drive after that to make it 10-3 going into halftime.

Despite having 30 minutes to make their adjustments and watch Usher rollerblade, the Chiefs first drive coming out of half couldn’t have gone worse. A botched pitch to Pacheco would nearly turn the ball over inside their own 10, and just a couple plays later, Mahomes would throw an interception to 49ers defensive back Ji’Ayir Brown.

Once again, though, the defense stepped up and forced a 3 and out from the 49ers on their ensuing possession. The next points wouldn’t come until later in the 3rd quarter, when Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker nailed a 57-yard field goal, making the score 10-6 and breaking Jake Moody’s Super Bowl record that he held for all of 45 minutes.

The tide seemed to shift at the end of 3rd when the 49ers muffed a punt, giving the ball to the Chiefs in prime scoring position. A passing touchdown from Mahomes to wide receiver Marques Valdes-Scantling on the very next play gave the Chiefs the lead, 13-10.

The 49ers answered with their own score, taking the lead back on the next possession, but crucially had the extra point blocked, leaving them with just a 3-point lead at 16-13. The Chiefs would once again tie the game at 16 apiece, giving the 49ers a chance to run the clock out and kick a game-winning field goal.

Brock Purdy drove the 49ers into field goal range, burning just enough clock that a first down would all but seal the game for San Francisco. But as they had done all game, the Chiefs defense forced a crucial stop, and the 49ers were forced to take a field goal with 1:57 remaining. Jake Moody drilled the 53-yarder, and it was up to Mahomes and the offense to stay alive.

Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense looked as good as they had all game on this last drive of regulation. Nearly putting a storybook ending on the game, with the final pass being intended for Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. But coming up short of the end zone, the Chiefs kicked through a game-tying field goal, and we headed to overtime tied 19-19.

At the beginning of the overtime period, the 49ers won the coin toss and elected to receive the kickoff, a questionable decision due to the recent change to the postseason overtime rules (I’ll explain the rule change and why the decision was questionable later). They led a drive down into scoring territory, but another clutch stop from the KC defense left the 49ers just short of the end zone, and they settled for a field goal.

Down 22-19 in overtime, it was score or go home for Mahomes and the Chiefs.

On the most important drive of his career, Mahomes went a perfect 8-for-8, passing and recorded 27+ yards rushing, something no quarterback has done on a single drive in the last 30 years. With less than 10 seconds remaining in the overtime period, Mahomes found Mecole Hardman wide open on the right side of the end zone.

The Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII in OT 25-22.

Impactful Plays

Little did the Chiefs know how important that blocked extra point would come to be. It kept the difference between them and the 49ers to just a field goal. Allowing them to stay in the game without the need for touchdowns, which were difficult to come by in this one.

The man who blocked the extra point was Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal, who finished the game as PFF’s highest-graded player in the Super Bowl and is truly an unsung hero.

The 49ers muffed punt late in the game was the other most impactful play. The Chiefs win probability at the time increased from 27% to 48% to 55% in just a two-play sequence. It was the only touchdown the Chiefs would score in regulation.

Here’s a chart displaying the win probability for both teams throughout the game. You can find where the muffed punt and touchdown occurred on the chart (see the steep drop just before the 4th quarter).

A boneheaded decision to rule them all

Going into overtime, the 49ers won the coin toss and had the choice of either receiving or kicking off to start the period. Two years ago, anybody in their right mind would elect to receive the ball because it meant that a touchdown simply ends the game. However, the overtime rules have changed since then.

An incredible playoff matchup between the Chiefs and Bills back in 2022 ended abruptly in overtime when the Chiefs scored on their opening possession. Players, fans, and team owners alike were unhappy with the rule that if a team scores a touchdown on their opening possession, the game is over.

So strictly for postseason games, they changed the rule. Now, if a team scores a touchdown on the opening possession, the other team still has a chance to drive down the field and answer with a touchdown of their own.

Super Bowl LVIII was the first time a postseason game had gone to overtime since the new rule had gone into effect.

According to multiple 49ers players, they were completely unaware of this rule.

The Chiefs, however, had been practicing overtime scenarios in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl and reportedly even planned on going for 2 if the 49ers had scored first.

So why was receiving the kickoff bad?

In every postseason game that has gone to overtime before this one, you want to receive the ball first. Because it meant that if you scored a touchdown, the game was simply over, and you never had to worry about the other team’s offense seeing the field.

This is no longer the case.

Because you have the opportunity to answer a touchdown with a score of your own, it is better to know what you have to do on offense.

When you do it this way, you get to use all four downs rather than only play with three like the 49ers did. Had they been in the situation they were but had gotten the ball second, they would’ve known that all four downs were necessary and not kicked a field goal.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid even said that they would’ve kicked the ball off had they won the coin toss.

The 49ers put themselves at an immediate disadvantage, gave the Chiefs exactly what they wanted, and subsequently lost the Super Bowl because they were unaware of a rule change. Crazy stuff.

Sidenote: If you have ESPN+, NFL Turning Point has an episode on the Super Bowl highlighting this moment (around the 30-minute mark). It's definitely worth checking out if you’re interested.

Bragging Rights

If you read my Super Bowl LVIII preview, you’d already know by now that I am a football savant. If you haven’t already read my Super Bowl LVIII preview, go read it and see why I am a football savant.

In my preview, I mentioned that the Chiefs would win the game because of their defense, led by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. And that he would specifically model his game plan off the games in which the 49ers offense played poorly against the Ravens and Browns.

Spagnuolo ran man coverage over 60% of the time against the 49ers, something only one other team had done all season against them, the Cleveland Browns.

I know, I know, you can pick up your jaw. Before you send my newsletter to all your family and friends, it gets even better.

At the end of my read, I even gave you all some picks for anyone who wanted to put a little money on the big game. Under 51.5 cashed comfortably. The final total finished at 47, and if you’re wondering what Vegas opened the line at, it was 46.5.

We don’t sweat around here.

Unless, of course, you rode 80+ rushing yards from Christian McCaffrey with me. Which did cash, thank you very much. It took an overtime period and exactly 80 rushing yards from the guy, but a lock’s a lock.

Chiefs ML was never in doubt; the comeback king won a Super Bowl after being down 10+ points for the third time, and I became more arrogant because of it. Please leave all your kind words, donations, and autograph requests in the feedback link down below.

And who can forget my shockingly close score prediction? I, not surprisingly, predicted a 24-20 Chiefs win and was just 1 point off their total score and 2 off the 49ers total. I’ll hold for applause.

The football analytics gods delivered one of the best Super Bowl finishes in recent history and showed everyone why you draft Caleb Williams and don’t rely on putting football’s equivalent of the Avengers around a fringe top-10 quarterback.

Also, if you’re weary about the reliability of football analytics or Expected Points Added (EPA), check out this sweet statistic I saw from @SandoNFL on Twitter. An explanation of EPA can be found here.

The Chiefs won 25–22.

Thanks for navigating the NFL’s Darkest Timeline with me. If you enjoyed this read, share it with a human being who you think would appreciate it too.

Until next time,

Michael

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