Before we begin, a look back to Super Bowl LIV

If you’re new to the NFL or perhaps a Taylor Swift fan, you might not know that these two teams met four years ago, on February 2nd, 2020, in Super Bowl LIV. It was the first time the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs made a Super Bowl appearance, and what an appearance it was.

The 49ers looked like they were on their way to winning their 6th ever Super Bowl, boasting a 10-point lead midway through the 4th quarter. But down 20-10 with 7 minutes remaining in the 4th, Patrick Mahomes hooked up with wide receiver Tyreek Hill for a 44-yard gain on 3rd & 15 to give the Chiefs some life. The Chiefs scored 14 unanswered points and took a 24-20 lead late in the 4th.

However, for a single moment in time, 49ers fans had hope. On a crucial 3rd down, with just over a minute remaining in the game, down 4, 49ers legend and Rolling Meadows High School graduate (my alma mater), Jimmy Garappolo fired down field to a wide open Emmanuel Sanders… He overthrew him by 5 yards. The Chiefs went on to win Super Bowl LIV 31-20.

Patrick Mahomes would win his first Super Bowl ring, and one month later, a global pandemic hit, perhaps a sign of things to come for NFL fans.

Super Bowl LVIII

Now, four years later, these two teams will meet once again. A Chiefs team led by local villain and State Farm commercial star Patrick Mahomes and a 49ers team led by an unlikely hero, Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy.

Since winning Super Bowl LIV, Patrick Mahomes has gone on to reach four straight AFC championship games and two more Super Bowls, winning one of them against the Eagles just a year ago. In that same span, the 49ers drafted said QB Brock Purdy with the very last pick in the 2022 draft, 262nd overall.

This time around, Mahomes will play against a much improved 49ers team. Going 12-5 in the regular season, San Francisco has had the league’s top-rated offense in a number of different categories. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have had, by their standards, a down year in 2023.

Let’s take a look at last year’s performance by Mahomes and the Chiefs in a year where he took home the NFL MVP award.

Quarterback Preview

Quick Side Note - An Explanation of EPA & Other NFL Performance Metrics:

• Expected Points Added (EPA) is a measure of success which defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score. For every play, EPA is attributed equally to both teams, and the metric is fairly reliable in identifying the best teams in football (Pro Football Focus).

• EPA per play (EPA/Play) is the value of total EPA divided by the number of plays.

In a nutshell, a positive EPA is good, and the higher the EPA, the better. A player can generate a positive EPA by gaining yards or scoring points. A low or negative EPA is bad and is typically a result of a player causing negative plays or turning the ball over.

Got it? Cool, now back to Mahomes.

Mahomes’ 2022 season was more representative of what we’ve grown to expect from him. Take a look at this graphic showing Patrick Mahomes’ performance in the 2022 season.

Through 21 games last year (Chiefs had a 1st round bye and did not play a wild card game), Mahomes amassed a cumulative EPA of over 200. For reference, during Peyton Manning’s record-breaking year in 2013, where he passed for 5447 yards and 55 touchdowns (both still NFL records), he amassed a cumulative EPA of 243.

It’s worth noting that in 2022, Mahomes did not have a single game where he posted a negative EPA/Play.

In 2023, however, this was not the case for Mahomes and the Chiefs. In fact, it was 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy who was among the league leaders in cumulative EPA. The graphic below shows both quarterbacks’ performances in the now 2023 season.

As you can see this time around, Patrick Mahomes gained a cumulative EPA of just under 50 through the 2023 season, quartering his production from a year before and posting 5 games with a negative EPA/Play. His Super Bowl LIV opponent Brock Purdy has a total EPA of just over 150 through 21 weeks and has just 3 games so far this year with a negative EPA/Play.

• Let me make this abundantly clear: I would not want you to read this if I were suggesting that Brock Purdy is a better quarterback than Patrick Mahomes; he is most certainly not. Purdy’s performance is heavily correlated to the offensive system he plays in as well as the supporting cast.

It is, however, important to consider the circumstances of this season. Brock Purdy’s offense in San Francisco has been consistently more efficient than Mahomes’ offense in Kansas City. Looking at weeks 19–21, however, on the EPA/Play chart (Wildcard, Divisional, and Championship Games), you’ll see that the offensive efficiency from both Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes has leveled off. Despite a slow regular season, Mahomes continues to be lethal in the playoffs against the best competition, and the 49ers offense seems to be plateauing. Both of these teams are playing about the same level of football right now.

A tense matchup is brewing in Vegas.

Not Betting Advice

Disclaimer: I am by no means an NFL expert or analyst. I am merely a college student who loves football and learned how to code a month ago. Any and all takes I have are semi-informed decisions based on NFL data and my limited experience with statistics.

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s cook.

The Chiefs open up as +2.5 point underdogs in their matchup against the 49ers. If they come out playing like they have in weeks past, I like them to not only cover but outright win.

Why? Simple: Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

If you’re unfamiliar with his game, remember those 2007 18-0 Patriots? He held them to under 17 points in the Super Bowl as the Defensive Coordinator for the New York Giants. Coincidentally, the four games the 49ers lost this year with Brock Purdy at QB: 17 points against Minnesota, 17 points against Cleveland, 17 points against Cincinnati, and 19 points against Baltimore (2 of them coming from a safety). Looking at the EPA/play chart again, you can see Purdy had some egregiously bad games against the Browns and Ravens. You can expect Spagnuolo to be watching every snap from those games.

Another interesting statistic to note from the San Francisco 49ers regular season is that they were 2-4 when Brock Purdy threw an interception and 10-0 otherwise. Both of those wins came against the Seahawks. Last Sunday marked the first time the 49ers beat a team not named the Seahawks when Brock Purdy throws an interception. They’re 0-3 this year when he throws 2+ INTs. I like the Chiefs secondary to record at least one INT.

Its for these same reasons that I like the under in this game. Taking alt under 51.5 (-187) to be safe. I think both teams start hot, playing off their opening scripts, but the scoring should start to fall off until the 4th quarter. In games like these, I have more faith in a player to show up than the system, especially when that player is Patrick Mahomes. I like him to show out in the big game as he has in years past, Chiefs ML (+110).

If there is one player prop I am buying into, it’s Christian McCaffery’s rushing yards. I like the alt line 80+ (-180). The 49ers offense has been good all around but matches up best against the Chiefs rush defense. The graphic below represents the two teams offensive and defensive performance so far this postseason: the Chiefs shown in yellow and the 49ers shown in gold.

• Quick Specification on How I Charted Quick/Slow Throws: The median time to throw in the NFL among QBs who played 80% of the snaps this year was 2.74 seconds. Any throw quicker than that was considered a quick throw, and any throw slower than that was charted as a slow throw.

Feel free to dive into this chart yourself and generate any picks you may have based on the data.

My Picks

Chiefs ML (+110)

Under 51.5 (-187)

Chiefs -1 (+112)

Christian McCaffery 80+ Rushing Yards (-180)

Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Ints (+100)

Parlayed (4 picks +900) — can’t parlay Chiefs ML and Chiefs -1

Final Score Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs 24 - 20 San Francisco 49ers

Thanks for navigating the NFL’s Darkest Timeline with me. If you enjoyed this read, share it with a human being who you think would appreciate it too.

Until next time,

Michael

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