Passing is DEAD

We’re two weeks through the start of the 2024 NFL season, and a peculiar statistical trend has begun to emerge.

In this week’s article, I’ll cover the death of the passing game in the NFL and provide one pick for every Week 3 matchup.

R.I.P. Passing Game 2017-2022

If you’ve found that the first two weeks of the NFL season have been rather tame through the air, you either have a keen eye or are just a Panthers fan.

Through the first two weeks, we’ve seen the lowest amount of passing touchdowns in the past 10 years (69 passing TDs).

That number has been declining every year since 2021 and has been nearly cut in half since 2018 (114 passing TDs by Week 2). The table below shows the amount of passing touchdowns through the first two weeks of the last ten NFL seasons.

Passing TDs through 2 weeks of NFL over the last 10 seasons:

• 2015: 105

• 2016: 98

• 2017: 78

• 2018: 114

• 2019: 105

• 2020: 110

• 2021: 110

• 2022: 105

• 2023: 86

• 2024: 69

This statistic comes from a tweet posted this week that sparked a ton of attention among NFL Twitter users such as myself.

While browsing the replies of the tweet, the consensus reasoning for this among many users seemed to be that we used to be spoiled with the likes of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger leading NFL offenses. And that we are simply lacking the talent at the quarterback position that we seemingly took for granted in years prior.

That seemed like far too easy of an answer to be true. Though it very likely could play a role in the long-term decrease, it would not account for the significant drop off in the past year alone, as no major QB has retired or taken a large step back since then.

My immediate suspicion was that NFL defenses have shifted their formations to more two-high safety looks. In Layman’s terms, they’re using one less big guy (who would typically defend the run) and rather, are using more small guys farther away from the line of scrimmage in an effort to better defend the pass.

If this were the case, though, you’d expect that as passing becomes more inefficient, running would become more efficient, due to there being fewer players in the box defending the run, but that isn’t always present.

Take a look at this chart from Jake Grossman (@jakegrossman0) depicting offensive success through the first two weeks of the last 11 NFL seasons.

While the run game (shown in pink) hasn’t seen as dramatic of a drop-off in performance as the passing game (shown in blue), it still follows the general decrease in offensive performance over the past four years.

In an effort to gain more information on this phenomenon, I reached out to Jake, a University of Michigan student who’s been a consistent contributor to the NFL analytics Twitter community and shares insightful graphics like this one all the time. I definitely recommend dropping a follow if you’re interested (Jake’s Twitter: @jakegrossman0).

I found what he told me to be surprising at first, but upon reflection, somewhat expected when you consider the state of NFL offenses now.

Jake stated that while yes, NFL defenses have begun to adjust to pass heavy offenses (by shifting to more nickel formations and two-high shells), it hasn’t necessarily led to an increased in efficiency during designed run plays and that much of the increase in rushing efficiency can be attributed to quarterback scrambles.

Jake had also brought up what I found to be one of his most interesting points. In the PFF book: Football Is a Numbers Game by Matthew Coller, sports analyst Steve Palazzolo talks about how defensive coaches are always searching for a competitive edge in the modern era of football.

These coaches have become more open-minded to the use of analytics in regards to play calling and scheme development. It very well could be the case that we’re beginning to see the effects of analytics in real time as they’re being used to slow down modern NFL offenses.

Though I felt I had a bit more knowledge on the subject now, I still was left with more questions as to what direction NFL offenses and defenses will head from here. My assumption is that these trends are cyclical. As defenses begin to adjust to the pass, they do so by sacrificing run defense, and vice versa. Yet, this still doesn’t seem to be the case. Traditional run plays are no more effective than they were before.

Jake brought another perspective to these questions as well. One of the few constancies among successful modern NFL offenses is the Shanahan Tree and the use of pre-snap motion.

If you’re unfamiliar with the Shanahan Tree, it is a coaching tree named after former NFL head coach Mike Shanahan. It’s incredibly QB-friendly and typically utilizes pre-snap motion in order to give QBs a better idea of what to expect from a defense on any given play. You can read more about it here.

Coincidentally, another graph came across my Twitter feed as I was writing this, depicting the explosive play rate and EPA per play of NFL play callers.

Nearly every coach who has found success in the modern NFL can be found in the top right quadrant of the graph. The Saints, Dolphins, Lions, Packers, 49ers, and Rams have all benefitted the most from their coaches and have consistently been the top-performing offenses by utilizing pre-snap motion to make life easy for their QBs.

Now there isn’t a definitive answer yet as to why we’re seeing this decline in passing, but there are signs that point to an answer.

NFL defenses, in the past two years or so, have evolved quicker than most NFL offenses, likely due to thwarting an offense’s ability to generate explosive plays. There are a select few teams in the NFL that can still generate these plays consistently. These teams have one of two things: a coach who is a descendant of the Shanahan Tree or a hyper-athletic dual-threat quarterback (think Lamar Jackson in Baltimore and Josh Allen in Buffalo) who can generate explosive plays with their legs by scrambling.

The NFL right now simply doesn’t have enough of either of those to go around. And when we’re referencing passing in particular, the only systems that continue to keep passing alive are those that fall under the Shanahan Tree. As teams begin to adopt this style of offense and the Shanahan Tree embeds its roots in the coaching staffs of NFL organizations, we should see a resurgence of the passing game as passing remains the most efficient way to gain yards in the NFL.

NFL defenses are ahead right now, but not necessarily in the hard-hitting way we’re used to seeing. Defensive coaches have become incredibly savvy at disguising their coverages and their blitzes, learning at an ever faster rate how to stop opposing offenses. As NFL offenses plot their revenge and develop methods to overcome this defensive revival, defensive coaches will be doing the same. The over-century-long chess match among coaches continues and remains one of the most interesting aspects of NFL game strategy.

Week 3 Picks

Last week we went a solid 11 for 16 (~69% nice) on our Week 2 picks, and we came a centimeter away from Saquon Barkley making it 75% if he found the end zone against Atlanta.

Quick Coding Update: The NFL has very annoyingly taken away the public’s ability to use team participation data. This is the data I found most useful last year, and it unfortunately means I will not be able to provide you with the graphics I made in the past for you to generate your own picks. Nevertheless, all picks will still be based upon data, and I’m still working on finding/generating metrics that I feel are worthy of sharing with all of you.

TNF: Patriots @ Jets — Rodgers Over 20.5 Completions: -105

The Patriots pass defense has been the weak point of their team thus far, allowing the most pass completions and 4th most pass attempts to QBs through the first two weeks of the season.

They struggle to contain opposing wide receivers as well. The Jets passing game should be clicking this week. I trust Rodgers to put together a solid performance while New England keeps it close all the way through.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 17-23 Jets

Giants @ Browns — Total Field Goals Made Over 3.5: +115

Perhaps a risky bet due to the Giants losing their kicker to injury in Week 2 against the Commanders, but they signed veteran kicker Graham Gano to their roster, who’s got four years experience playing for New York

The Giants offense found the end zone on all three of their red zone trips against Washington, but a much scarier Browns defense will likely keep that from happening two weeks in a row. Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins has been good from distance so far this year, and a weak offense in New York means Cleveland will be less inclined to go for it on fourth downs.

Final Score Prediction: Giants 9 - 16 Browns

Bears @ Colts — Anthony Richardson Over 0.5 INTs: -130

Interception props are my favorite ones to bet on. Anthony Richardson has struggled with accuracy issues in his first two starts. The Bears have an impressive run defense and should stay in control of this game, forcing the Colts into passing scenarios. The Bears defense has the 3rd most interceptions so far this year, and with talent at every secondary position, they should capitalize on Richardson’s mistakes. A weak run defense from Indianapolis means the Bears offense could finally find a rhythm and let fans see a glimpse of Caleb Williams’ potential.

Final Score Prediction: Bears 27 - 17 Colts

Texans @ Vikings — Over 44.5: -132

The Vikings have been one of the most unlikely surprises of the 2024 season, continuing their hot Week 1 start with a win over the 49ers in Week 2. This can mainly be attributed to that QB-friendly system that Darnold has taken full advantage of. Both of these teams’ defenses haven’t stopped the pass well, and we could easily see a shootout between them as they’re both top-10 in the league at generating explosive plays despite the drop off in offensive passing success across the league.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 27 - 26 Vikings

Eagles @ Saints — Derrick Carr 2+ Passing TDs: +100

The Saints offense has been decimating opposing defenses like no other this year. Derrick Carr has surpassed this number in both of his games so far, and their offense has used more of that aforementioned pre-snap motion than anyone else. The Eagles have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in both their games this year and are allowing the third most yards and second most touchdowns to opposing receivers.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 20 - 31 Saints

Chargers @ Steelers — Chargers ML: +100

Both teams have had an unlikely 2-0 start to their seasons but one will unfortunately lose this week. The Chargers have put together impressive victories from start to finish in each of their two games. The same cannot be said for Pittsburgh, whose offense is averaging 15.5 points per game. It’ll take more than that to take down the Harbaugh-led Chargers.

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 23 - 16 Steelers

Broncos @ Buccaneers — Chris Godwin 60+ Receiving Yards: -120

Broncos standout corner Patrick Surtain II will be tasked with defending Mike Evans this week. Leaving Chris Godwin, the NFL’s second-leading receiver, to feast this week as he takes 65% of his snaps from the slot. The Buccaneers are playing some of the best football in the NFL right now and get to go home after an impressive victory against Detroit. I’m all over them this week, and they should make easy work of Denver.

Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 31 - 14 Broncos

Packers @ Titans — Will Levis Over 0.5 INTs: -140

This is one of the hardest games to project because of the teams’ quarterback play. All I know is it’s going to be messy. Will Levis has been comically bad at protecting the football this year, and the Packers secondary has been top of the league at capitalizing on those mistakes.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 17 - 16 Titans

Panthers @ Raiders — Brock Bowers 50+ Receiving Yards: -105

Brock Bowers has been everything as advertised and then some. The standout tight end prospect out of Georgia has been productive in his first two starts, totaling 58 receiving yards in his first start and 98 in a win against Baltimore. Carolina allows the 4th most receptions to tight ends and the 7th most yards. With Carolina’s only standout defender, Jaycee Horn, occupied with Davante Adams, Bowers is one of my favorite picks to have a day on Sunday. However, I think Carolina looks better with Dalton under center. They should keep it competitive.

Final Score Prediction: Panthers 17 - 26 Raiders

Dolphins @ Seahawks — Jason Sanders Over 1.5 Field Goals: -115

The Dolphins will be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for at least four weeks as he recovers from a concussion. Skylar Thompson will take over the quarterback duties for the time being. He hasn’t looked great in his time under center so far but the Dolphins supporting cast should bring them into field goal range enough times for this to cash. Thompson led multiple drives into field goal range in his limited playing time against Buffalo, but game circumstances led to Miami going for it on 4th down in an effort to mount a comeback.

Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 16 - 20 Seahawks

Lions @ Cardinals — Marvin Harrison Jr. 60+ Receiving Yards: -105

Maserati Marv broke onto the scene with two impressive touchdowns against the Los Angeles Rams. Now the Cardinals take on a Detroit team thats allowing the most targets, receptions, and yards to opposing wide receivers. As the undisputed WR1 in Arizona, 60+ should hit with ease.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 23 - 24 Cardinals

Ravens @ Cowboys — Derrick Henry Anytime TD: -170

Henry has found the end zone in each of his first two games as a Raven. He now faces a weak Cowboys run defense that’s allowing the most TDs to opposing running backs. I like this game to be an exciting one as both teams are desperate to stay above .500.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 30 - 31 Cowboys

49ers @ Rams — Jordan Mason Anytime TD: -190

The Rams are entering this game without both of their standout receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The 49ers should look to control this game on the ground, and Jordan Mason could very likely find the end zone against a Rams defense that’s allowing the third most TDs to opposing RBs.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 24 - 17 Rams

Chiefs @ Falcons — Chiefs ML: -175

Another boring Chiefs ML pick, but KC has been the best team in the NFL for nearly 5 years now and Atlanta simply isn’t the team that’ll hand the Chiefs their first loss of 2024. The Chiefs, however, have struggled to pull away in games thus far, so Atlanta should be able to keep it close.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 23 - 17 Falcons

MNF: Jaguars @ Bills — James Cook Over 17.5 Receiving Yards: -115

Jacksonville is allowing the third-most targets and receptions to opposing running backs and now takes on one of the best receiving backs in the NFL in James Cook. He passed the 17-yard mark in week one easily and finished with exactly 17 on just one target and one reception in a win against Miami. Buffalo should calmly take down Jacksonville, who are now 1-7 in their last eight games

Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 17 - 27 Bills

MNF: Commanders @ Bengals — Joe Burrow 2+ Touchdown Passes: -140

The Commanders, for the second year in a row, have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Their currently allowing the most passing touchdowns to opposing QBs and all the lines point to Joe Burrow having a great performance during the Monday night doubleheader. The Bengals have a tendency to start seasons slow but should return to pace in a favorable matchup at home in primetime.

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 22 - 30 Bengals

Thanks for navigating the NFL’s Darkest Timeline with me. If you enjoyed this read, share it with a human being who you think would appreciate it too.

Until next time,

Michael

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