One Bet for Every Week 2 Game

NFL Week 1 is in the books.

Rookies and coaches made their NFL debuts, and veterans suited up for their newest teams for the first time.

In this week’s article, I’ll cover all that and more in a week 1 recap and give you one bet for every Week 2 matchup.

Week 1 Recap

Ravens 20 - 27 Chiefs

Chiefs have continued to play like the best team in the league thanks to Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo making opposing offenses struggle regardless of their talent. They look like serious contenders for a 3-peat.

Ravens will still be a playoff team this year but their offensive line has seriously regressed. They’ll need to get Derrick Henry and that rushing game clicking to take the pressure off Lamar on pass plays. Tight end Isaiah Likely looked spectacular in the loss and could be a fantasy football league winner. They were an inch away from forcing overtime in this game but great teams don’t allow games to come down to one play.

Packers 29 - 34 Eagles

The story of the game is obviously Jordan Love’s injury that he suffered with just seconds remaining. Green Bay is lucky that the injury wasn’t season ending and will rely on former Tennessee Titan Malik Willis to fill in for Jordan Love for at least the next 3 weeks. Their offense was humming for most of the game with wide receiver Jayden Reed looking exceptional after the catch. Their defense was shaky at best allowing over 10 yards a carry on outside zone running plays. It could be an ugly few weeks for them coming up.

Philadelphia’s offense looked healthier than it did in those hard-to-watch last few weeks of last year thanks to the acquisition of Saquon Barkley. They should continue to pose problems for opposing defenses, but I just can’t see this team returning to the Super Bowl until Jalen Hurts can throw across the middle of the field. For now, I’ll enjoy watching Saquon behind the best offensive line he’s ever played with.

Panthers 10 - 47 Saints

I was hopeful that the offseason acquisitions made by Carolina would pay dividends early on against a Saints team that has struggled to find their identity since the departure of head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees. Boy was I wrong. Bryce Young looked abysmal in the matchup, throwing an interception on his first pass attempt. An ugly game from start to finish and they are immediate front runners for the 1st overall pick once again this year.

Saints looked like the much more well prepared unit in this one and they usually do early on in NFL seasons. I’m not yet convinced they’ll be a playoff team this year but this is about as hot a start you can ask for from them. They certainly have the talent necessary for a playoff spot, especially in a weak NFC South division, but it’ll come down to season long health and consistency for them to make a push to play in the post season.

Vikings 28 - 6 Giants

The Minnesota Vikings were one of the biggest surprises of the week. Their offense looked incredibly efficient led by 7-year veteran Sam Darnold. Darnold completed his first 12 passing attempts and finished the day 19-of-24, with 208 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. The offensive system ran by head coach Kevin O’Connell is incredibly QB friendly, and with a plethora of offensive weapons to throw to, Darnold could be in for a late career resurgence in Minnesota.

The Giants continue to be one of the league’s dumpster fires ever since paying Daniel Jones $160 million. Since signing his contract, Jones has thrown more touchdown passes to his opponents than to his own team. It’ll likely be a race to last place between New York and Carolina for the first pick next year and Daniel Jones is shaping up to become one of the highest paid backups in the NFL.

Patriots 16 - 10 Bengals

Another surprising result came from the Jacoby Brissett led Patriots who upset the Bengals in Cincinatti. Jerod Mayo got his first win as a head coach and had his team playing with the most aggression I’ve seen since the departure of Tom Brady. The lack of overall talent will hold the Patriots back this year, but wins like these are great for a team and a coach looking to establish a new culture. If you plan on investing in this team’s future, buy in now.

The Cincinatti Bengals offense looked lost week one with the absence of Tee Higgins. The Bengals have made a habit of starting the season off slow, but with a tough division and an even tougher conference, the Bengals will need a quick turnaround if they hope to play games through January.

Steelers 18 - 10 Falcons

The Justin Fields led Pittsburgh Steelers came out of Atlanta with a win Sunday, despite the offense failing to find the end zone. Justin Fields completed 73.9% of his passes and didn’t turn the ball over but once again had the league’s longest time to throw. It feels like the same old story with Justin, but effective play calling and protection could have that offense doing just enough to win games if their defense continues to perform as they have in years past.

The Atlanta Falcons might be one of the most worried franchises after week one considering how high the hopes were for this team coming into this year. Kirk Cousins did not look anywhere close to 100% healthy coming off the achilles tear he suffered last year. He rarely was able to plant his right foot and release the ball with confidence and I suspect we’ll see Michael Penix Jr. earlier than anticipated, which could be an unlikely pleasant surprise for them.

Texans 29 - 27 Colts

I didn’t catch much of this game outside of the highlights, but Texans wide receiver Nico Collins even better than last year and the offseason acquisition of running back Joe Mixon is already looking like a good signing. The Texans pick up an early and important division victory as they look to get back on the same pace they were last year.

The Colts performance this week is an interesting one to me. Anthony Richardson had one of the most efficiently inefficient games in his first start back from a season ending injury last year. On just 9 completions, Richardson threw for over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns, which included one of the most impressive throws ever taken place on an NFL field during a 60-yard touchdown throw to Alex Pierce. As perhaps the most physically gifted quarterback we’ve ever seen, Richardson is also one of the most inexperienced. He’s only started 17 games since HIGH SCHOOL, but the talent is undeniable. If the Colts quarterback development room can unleash his full potential, that team will be terrifying.

Cardinals 28 - 34 Bills

The Jonathan Gannon coached Cardinals continue to hang with some of the best teams in the NFL, especially when Kyler Murray is healthy. Despite failing to hang on to an early lead, the Cardinals were only a few plays away from leaving Buffalo with a win. I worry that their division and defense will keep them from double digit wins this year, but I think they’ll be among the best teams at covering the spread no matter who their opponent is.

Buffalo came close to losing what we’ve grown to consider an easy win for them. Their offense, since about the mid point of last season, has been heavily reliant on the play of quarterback of Josh Allen. It looks like that’ll be the case once again this year and Allen should make his strongest case yet for the NFL MVP award.

Titans 17 - 24 Bears

The Tennessee Titans came out hot in the first half against Chicago, making life difficult for Caleb Williams in his NFL debut. Their defensive line wreaked havoc and exceeded expectations. However their offense and special teams failed them miserably in the second half. The same unit who got their punter injured last year allowed a punt block returned for a touchdown that sparked a 17-point comeback for Chicago. Will Levis’s 4th quarter pick six also resulted in an early contender for photo of the year.

The Chicago Bears didn’t have the start they hoped for out of 1st overall pick Caleb Williams. Accuracy was all over the place from Caleb but the processing and release looked promising, not to mention the offensive line didn’t do him many favors. There are a ton of new pieces in this offensive system so it may take a few weeks for things to click. Despite the poor performance on the offensive side, the defense looked like perhaps the best unit in the league, allowing 0 second half points and putting points on the board themselves with a Tyrique Stevenson pick six. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson was highest rated corner by PFF this week and secured the game sealing interception. If the offense can pick things up, the Bears will have a very well rounded football team.

Jaguars 17 - 20 Dolphins

Jacksonville came just a few yards away from salting away what would’ve been an impressive week one victory. But a Travis Etienne fumble at the goal line was the straw that broke the Jaguar’s back. Trevor Lawrence had one of the most impressive throws of the week on a touchdown pass to rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. One of my favorite rookies this year, Thomas Jr. has looked great so far as the primary target in Jacksonville. As the best receiver at finding the end zone in college last year, I don’t think he’ll break pace in his rookie season and might just lead all rookie receivers in touchdown receptions.

The Dolphins offense took a while to get into gear but looked like the same unit as last year once they did. Injuries to running backs Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane will hurt the offense’s production, especially on a short week. With a tough match up looming against Buffalo tonight, I think the Dolphins pick up an unfortunate loss considering so much of their offense relies on first reads and the cohesion of consistent starters.

Broncos 20 - 26 Seahawks

The Broncos performance this week is a challenging one to grade. Rookie QB Bo Nix had a stellar passing chart, finding completions to all areas of the field, but his inability to protect the football was on display against a talented defense. A promising start from the rookie though who just needs to adjust to the speed of NFL defenses and refine his decision making.

Seattle had a shaky start to their first game in the post Pete Carroll era. Despite early turnovers and a shocking two first half safeties, their defense and run game stepped up and closed out an early win against an unproven Denver Broncos team. 33-year-old Geno Smith reached a top speed 21.67 mph on his 34-yard touchdown scamper in the 2nd quarter. Running back Kenneth Walker looked elusive as always and found the end zone in week one, but missed practice Wednesday with an oblique injury, something to keep an eye on into week two.

Raiders 10 - 22 Chargers

I caught almost none of this game but my projections for both of these teams are pretty straightforward. The Raiders just simply don’t have enough talent across the board to be competitive this year. Gardner Minshew is hardly a step up from Jimmy Garoppolo and the loss of running back Josh Jacobs isn’t doing them any favors. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers saw good volume and out-performed his fantasy projections but it seems like another year of waiting for the Las Vegas Raiders, who won’t be bad enough to be in contention for a top-3 draft pick, and won’t win enough games to see the postseason.

The Los Angeles Chargers were much improved in their first game under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh, making his much anticipated return to the NFL, is a proven leader and has an unmistakable ability to maximize the talent on his rosters. The Chargers are another team that lacks roster depth and top end talent, but they’ll never be a team that opponents look forward to playing during this multi-year rebuild.

Cowboys 33 - 17 Browns

How the Dallas Cowboys were underdogs going into this matchup is shocking to me. This was one of the league’s leading offenses last year along with having some of the most impactful game changers on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas looked solid from start to finish this game. Their offensive line, which has two new rookies at center and left tackle, held up well against a potent Cleveland defensive line. The Cowboys will be just as good, if not better, than last year and only really have to compete with Philadelphia for the NFC East.

This is the worst case scenario for Cleveland right now. Deshaun Watson looks like a shell of who he was with Houston and there’s no way out of the lucrative fully-guaranteed contract he signed when he joined the team. Last year, quarterback Joe Flacco stepped in and brought the team to a playoff appearance, but the Browns don’t have that liberty this time around. The fact that I’m even talking about how the Browns don’t have the liberty of playing Joe Flacco over Deshaun Watson in 2024 is insane. Cleveland is simply wasting another year of talent and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some franchise cornerstones depart the city by the trade deadline.

Commanders 20 - 37 Buccaneers

The long awaited debut of number 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels didn’t result in a victory but the rookie exceeded expectations. With 184 yards through the air and another 88 on the ground (and 2 TDs), Daniels had a strong start. He bought time well and didn’t seem shaken by the change of pace between college and the NFL. Washington will hope to break the streak of eight straight years with a new starting quarterback in week one but their defense continues to be the glaring weakness for them.

The Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield showed out on Sunday. Its been a truly remarkable turnaround to Baker Mayfield’s career and it only makes you wonder what could’ve been if Cleveland never let him go. 11th-year wide receiver Mike Evans hasn’t lost a step and this Buccaneers team looks leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else in their division. They’ll look to make the playoffs for the fifth year in a row.

Rams 20 - 26 Lions (OT)

The 2023 NFC Wild Card rematch didn’t disappoint in this year’s first edition of Sunday Night Football. Both teams were evenly matched and despite the unfortunate loss of stud 2nd-year wide receiver Puka Nacua, the Rams forced overtime against Detroit and lost without their offense seeing the field. There should be no worries from Rams fans though as Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp looked as sharp as ever with Kupp hauling in a tied career best 14 receptions in a single game.

Detroit is coming into this season looking to surpass their achievements of last year and started off well taking down a conference foe they met in the playoffs last year. The Lions performed about the same as they did last season but have added some exciting pieces on the defensive side of the ball. Retaining offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who was one of the biggest head coaching candidates of the offseason, will be one of the most important pieces to this teams success, alongside the health of their multi-faceted offense.

Jets 19 - 32 49ers (Scorigami!)

Aaron Rodgers made his unofficial first start for New York since tearing his achilles in the first four snaps of week one last year. The 40-year old QB didn’t look at all like he was coming off an achilles tear. Rodgers commanded the offense well and he scored his first touchdown back on a trademarked “Rodgers Free Play”. The Jets should compete for their division this year, but week one proved too tough against the former NFC Champion 49ers.

San Francisco came out strong on the offensive side even while missing their star running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey, who’s dealing with achilles tendonitis, didn’t have his presence missed much as back up running back Jordan Mason stepped up and totaled 147 yards rushing and one touchdown on 28 carries. The 49ers expect to be without McCaffrey in the coming weeks, but if week one is any indicator, they’ll do just fine without him.

Week 2 Bets

Quick Preface: I’m still working to set up the code I used last year to look at the analytics for matchups. I’m expecting by next week to have it ready for y’all and as the season goes on there will be less variance and more accurate picks based on the data. For now, I’ll be using data from other sources in order to determine the picks.

TNF: Bills @ Dolphins — Bills ML: +114

Dolphins will likely be without both Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert this week. Achane is listed as questionable but will likely see limited snaps even if he does play. This is an offense that is so reliant on playing within structure and doing so will be difficult if they’re missing key pieces.

Miami also typically has a unique home advantage later in the year against cold weather teams due to the heat, but early in the season and in primetime, that advantage is basically nonexistent. Give me Buffalo in a close one 27-26.

Raiders @ Ravens — Derrick Henry Anytime TD: -180

Raiders give up the 7th most yards and touchdowns to opposing running backs. The Ravens should be able to play to their strengths more in this matchup than last week, meaning Derrick Henry should see higher volume and find the end zone, perhaps more than once.

49ers @ Vikings — Brock Purdy Over 19.5 Completions: -130

Vikings have allowed the most completions and 5th most passing attempts to opposing QBs. They’ll keep it close enough for the 49ers to continue passing throughout the game and Purdy should easily surpass 20 completions.

Saints @ Cowboys — Cowboys -6.5: -102

Dallas was a significantly better team at home than away last year and the NFL loves to underestimate them early on in the season. The Saints go from the easiest opponent in the NFC to one of the hardest. Give me the Cowboys in a blowout in their home opener.

Chargers @ Panthers — J.K. Dobbins Over 43.5 Rushing Yards: -170

The Jim Harbaugh led Chargers are not running the typical offensive system were used to seeing out of LA. Harbaugh loves to ground and pound and the Chargers match up well in the trenches against a Carolina team who let up 180 yards on the ground last week.

Colts @ Packers — Colts -3: -108

-3 is a shockingly disrespectful line for the Colts in this matchup. Packers QB Malik Willis has yet to put together a convincing start and I don’t expect him to in a new system against a tough opponent. Not to mention the Packers rush defense was abysmal against the Eagles last week. The Colts match up perfectly in this one and should cover with ease.

Buccaneers @ Lions — Buccaneers +7.5: -115

In my opinion another disrespectful line here in this matchup. Buccaneers held their own in the playoff matchup between these two teams last year and both of them are playing great football right now. I expect this to be one of the closest games of the week and would even be comfortable playing around with Buccaneers ML at +285.

Seahawks @ Patriots — Under 43.5: -204

Both of these teams’ offenses struggled in week one through the air and on 3rd down. With physical defenses I think both offenses will fail to find a groove, especially with Seattle running back Kenneth Walker dealing with an oblique injury. Vegas set the line in this game at 38.5, but I refuse to touch Vegas lines and prefer to play it safe. Give me under 43.5.

Jets @ Titans — Will Levis Over 0.5 Interceptions: -145

Will Levis faces a tough defense for the second week in a row after turning the ball over 3 times in week one against Chicago. The Jets offense will likely be less forgiving, forcing Tennessee into passing situations. Levis lets loose far to often and New York’s defense should make him pay.

Browns @ Jaguars — Jerome Ford Over 17.5 Rec Yards: -115

The Jaguars allow the most targets and receptions to opposing running backs along with the 2nd most receiving yards. Ford is efficient in the passing game and caught the ball six times last week out of the backfield.

Giants @ Commanders — Jayden Daniels Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards: -115

Jayden Daniels was electric on the ground against Tampa Bay last week. I expect that to continue against a poor Giants team who’s defense struggled to manage Sam Darnold last week. Daniels had 16 rushing attempts in week one. Notorious for refusing to slide in college, I’m confident he doesn’t shy away from more rushing opportunities this week and his longest goes for over 15 yards.

Rams @ Cardinals — Kyren Williams Anytime TD: -160

Vegas likes this to be a high scoring match up and the Cardinals don’t do well at bottling up running backs on the ground or through the air. The Cardinals allow the 2nd most rushing attempts, rushing yards, and the most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs. The Rams dual threat back should have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone this week.

Bengals @ Chiefs — Chiefs ML: -225

Not a very fun one but definitely safe. The Bengals normally put up good showings against KC, but their slow start and absence of Tee Higgins has put a wrench in things for Burrow’s Bengals. The Chiefs have only gotten better in every matchup between the two teams and Arrowhead has become one of the most difficult stadiums to play in.

Steelers @ Broncos — Bo Nix Over 0.5 Interceptions: TBD

There aren’t odds posted yet for Bo Nix to throw an interception this week, but I expect the line to open up somewhere around -160. The rookie QB doesn’t shy away from letting the ball fly, but Pittsburgh is a punishing defense that capitalizes on quarterbacking mistakes. I predict another multiple interception week from Nix as he acclimates to the NFL.

SNF: Bears @ Texans — Caleb Wiliams Under 233.5 Passing Yards: -170

Caleb Williams and the Bears offense struggled mightily against the Titans last Sunday. The Texans don’t pose the same danger with their interior defensive line, but a strong edge rushing duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter will make things difficult for the Bears offense for the second week in a row on prime time.

MNF: Falcons @ Eagles — Saquon Barkley Anytime TD: -215

Saquon Barkley found the end zone three times in their win against Green Bay, something Saquon only did once in a game during his time in New York. Playing behind the best offensive line of his career, I think Saquon is safe bet almost every week to find the end zone this year and very likely a fantasy league winner.

Thanks for navigating the NFL’s Darkest Timeline with me. If you enjoyed this read, share it with a human being who you think would appreciate it too.

Until next time,

Michael

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