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The Best Trade in NFL History
The 2021 QB Swap between the Lions and Rams
Grading Trades
Determining what makes a trade great is a flawed practice.
Media companies, teams, and fans alike are often too quick to determine whether or not a team “won” a trade.
There are tons of factors to consider when looking at what a team gave up or acquired in a trade.
We have finite values like past performance, contract financials, and draft pick value, but we have few ways to project how well a player will perform with a new supporting cast, how well a team will use the draft picks they acquired or sacrificed, or if the player will even be healthy enough to play in the future.
Even after all of that, you still have to justify which team ended up winning or losing the trade.
It just goes to show that it’s nearly impossible to forecast whether or not a trade will be successful for the participating teams right after it happens.
Unless, of course, you are me, who perfectly predicted how the trade between the Rams and Lions would go when they traded their starting quarterbacks back in 2021.
The Trade
On January 30th, 2021, the Detroit Lions traded away their franchise quarterback, Matt Stafford, to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for their quarterback, Jared Goff, as well as their 2022 & 2023 first round picks and a 2021 third round pick.
At the time of the trade, the Lions were coming off a last-place finish in the NFC North for the third year in a row and ended the season with a 5-11 record.
Matthew Stafford was hardly at fault for much of the Lions’ struggles during his tenure there. Stafford finished as the team’s all-time leader in completions (2,634), passing yards (30,303), passing touchdowns (187), and passer rating (86.8). He was also the fastest quarterback in NFL history to reach the 30,000-yard mark.
The Rams were in nearly the opposite position as their trading partner.
They had finished with a winning record the previous 4 years, winning their division in two of them and even appearing in the Super Bowl during the 2018 season, losing to the Patriots.
The Rams already had a star-studded offense, an elite head coach, and the league’s best defense in 2020. The one thing holding the team back from returning to championship contention was their quarterback, Jared Goff, who had failed to get back to his 2018 form when he brought the Rams to the Super Bowl.
The Rams, in light of their subpar quarterback play, and the Lions, with respect to their long-time team leader, elected to trade their quarterbacks.
The Lions would receive a well-respected but perhaps fractured quarterback as well as some future picks to build a better roster around him, and the Rams would get their missing piece to bring them back to the promised land.
Few people anticipate that a trade of this caliber will benefit both teams.
After the trade occurred, many argued that the Lions were foolish for letting their one consistent piece walk away, and others argued that the Rams simply paid too much for a quarterback already on the wrong side of 30 years old.
I, however, had the most incredible and accurate prediction of my young football career.
My football genius — As documented in the notes app on my phone
The night that the trade occurred, I predicted that this trade would lead both teams to division titles and lead the Rams back to the Super Bowl.
(mind you, this was immediately after Aaron Rodgers won MVP and the Lions fired ex-head coach Matt Patricia)
I also decided to write a 3-page paper for my class on why I thought the Rams would be so successful. If you’d like to read that, you can check it out here.
The following year, the Rams were not only division champions in the NFC West but also Super Bowl champions, just 379 days after trading for their new QB.
And exactly 3 seasons later, the Detroit Lions won their division, the NFC North, for the first time in their franchise’s history.
To truly understand how great this trade has been for both teams, let’s dive deeper into their results since the trade occurred.
Trade Outcomes
The Los Angeles Rams
The Rams immediately saw the impact of their new quarterback, Matthew Stafford, in the season following the trade.
They finished the season as NFC West champs and had a 12-5 record, the most in a season since their Super Bowl appearance a few years prior.
Stafford finished with the third-most passing yards he’s ever finished with in a season (4886) and tied his record for passing touchdowns in a season (41), which he set 10 years before in 2011.
Stafford, who had failed to win a single playoff game in his three appearances with Detroit, won four playoff games, including a Super Bowl, in his first run with LA.
Matt Stafford celebrates becoming Super Bowl LVI champion
The Rams had a severe Super Bowl hangover after their 2021 season. They finished with the worst winning percentage of any defending Super Bowl champion in NFL history. This was largely due to injury, as 23 of the team’s members, including Stafford, missed a game or more due to injury by week 10 of the season.
They’ve since returned to form, sporting the league’s least injured team in 2023, and found themselves back in the playoffs, where they faced those Detroit Lions.
The Detroit Lions
The Lions tide didn’t turn as quickly as the Rams did after the trade.
The following year, they finished 3-13-1, the second-worst record in the league.
The next year, they started the season 1–6, and there were a lot of questions around their decision to trade away a now-Super Bowl champion, Matt Stafford. After their poor start to the season, the Lions went 8-2 in their last 10 games and finished the season 9-8, just short of making the playoffs.
They started the 2023 season where they left off the year before. They beat the defending Super Bowl champions in the NFL season opener and ended the year 12-5.
They finished in a 3-way tie for the best record in the NFC, tied a franchise record for most wins in a season (12), and won the NFC North for the first time in team history.
After finishing with the best record in their division, the Lions hosted their first playoff game in over 3 decades against the Los Angeles Rams.
The only man standing in their way of a playoff victory was the quarterback who gave his all to the city and was traded away a few years ago.
Truly poetic.
The Lions would go on to win their matchup against Stafford and the Rams in a dramatic 24-23 finish. The Lions would also win their next playoff matchup against the Buccaneers and find themselves in the NFC championship game, where there luck would unfortunately run out against the San Francisco 49ers.
Lions win their first playoff game in 32 years
Nevertheless, with a young core and loads of draft capital, the Lions are primed for long-term success for really the first time in team history.
Using the draft picks they acquired through this trade, the Lions were able to draft running back Jahmyr Gibbs, wide receiver Jameson Williams, and tight end Sam Laporta, who just broke the rookie tight end record for most receptions and caught the second-most touchdowns by a rookie at the position.
Lions rookie tight end Sam Laporta blocking for rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs
The Rare Win-Win
Trades of this scale don’t often result in a win for both teams.
They even more rarely result in such significant results for each party. It’s very difficult to quantify how valuable wins are to a franchise, especially post-season wins, so I’ll try my best.
In the history of the Detroit Lions (founded in 1930), they have only ever won nine playoff games.
Two of those came as a result of this move.
Since 2000, the Lions had only ever played in three playoff games before this year. In this season, they doubled that total.
The Rams, who have only ever won two Super Bowls in their franchise’s history, won one of those as a result of this trade.
In fact, only 20 of the 32 NFL teams have ever even won a Super Bowl, and less than half (15) have ever won more than one. The Rams joined that group.
This is a move that is etched in both of these franchise’s histories.
Both teams look to be competitive in the years going forward and likely will be as we move into the 2024 NFL season, and they have each other to thank for it.
Thanks for navigating the NFL’s Darkest Timeline with me. If you enjoyed this read, share it with a human being who you think would appreciate it too.
Until next time,
Michael
PS: Apologies for the lack of analytics in recent posts. I’ll be getting back to some more in-depth analysis in future articles.
Got any feedback or topics you’d like to see me cover? Let me know here.
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