Mitchell David Trubisky

Mitchell Trubisky is a polarizing name in the city of Chicago. A mention of his name can bring shivers down the spines of spiteful Bears fans and yet also bring a smile to the faces of some who remember his time in Chicago and presence on Twitter more fondly.

But how did it come to be that way?

On April 27th, 2017, the Chicago Bears traded their No. 3 overall pick, a third-round pick (No. 67), a fourth-round pick (No. 111), and a 2018 third-round pick (No. 70) to the San Francisco 49ers to move up to the No. 2 overall spot in the 2017 NFL Draft. With that pick, the Chicago Bears selected Mitch Trubisky, a quarterback out of North Carolina.

Eight picks later, the Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes.

Mitch’s tenure in Chicago is difficult to describe. As a rookie, he was incredibly inexperienced, having only started 13 games in his college career.

He began his career as most Bears quarterbacks do, with a head coach who didn’t want him and wouldn’t be there the following year. The sharpest of Bears fans, like myself, can even remember how Mitch’s first game went down.

On a Monday night in Chicago, the Bears faced a Minnesota Vikings team looking to take advantage of a rookie making their first start under the bright lights.

Trubisky’s very first touchdown pass gave Bears fans a look into what the Mitch Trubisky experience was all about. His first TD came on an underthrown ball to the end zone, which would get tipped by Minnesota’s Harrison Smith and fall comfortably into the hands of Zach Miller for a Bears touchdown.

The Bears trailed for most of the game, but a fake punt touchdown pass from punter Pat O’Donnell and a fancy trick play on the 2-point conversion tied the game 17-17. Still tied late in the fourth, Mitch had his first ever opportunity to take the Bears down the field for a game-winning drive.

He threw an interception on his first pass attempt. The Bears lost the game 20-17.

The 4th Quarter Mitch Phenomenon

For those who aren’t delusional Bears fans like I am, you probably have no idea what I am referencing when I talk about the 4th Quarter Mitch Phenomenon.

Please allow me to explain.

Mitchell Trubisky, most of the time, was not a great quarterback. And despite his first ever attempt at mounting a game-winning drive being a disaster, he gave Bears fans some magical moments late in games, earning the nickname “4th Quarter Mitch”.

The first time we saw an appearance from 4th Quarter Mitch was his rookie year in a Week 11 matchup against the Lions. Down 24-27, Mitch looked more composed and agile than we had ever seen him as he converted a 4th and 13 to bring the Bears into field goal range.

Bears kicker Connor Barth went on to drill the 46-yard field goal to force overtime and get the Bears an eventual win, right? RIGHT?

Not even close.

Despite an incredible effort from the Bears QB, it was all for naught as the Bears would lose 27-24. However, Bears fans slowly became enthusiastic supporters of the rookie from North Carolina and really started to miss their old friend Robbie Gould.

• I’d also like to note that I’ve been working on this for some time now, and as I am writing this, that damn GIF has played about 100 times now. This is the cross I bear for all of you.

In his second year, we rarely saw a need for 4th Quarter Mitch to make an appearance.

The 2018 Bears were a dominant team, led by the league’s leading defense that year. They had won 9 out of their 12 games by a touchdown or more.

In the two games where Mitch Trubisky technically recorded a game-winning drive that year (Week 2 vs. Arizona & Week 15 vs. Green Bay), the game was sealed with a defensive stop.

Neither of the “game-winning” drives that Mitch led ended with less than 4 minutes on the game clock. More importantly, neither of them had a moment that showcased his playmaking ability in crunch time.

We wouldn’t see 4th Quarter Mitch that season until it mattered most. The 2018 NFC Wildcard game.

Down 16-15 to the Philadelphia Eagles, Mitch had a chance to deliver Chicago the most important win for the franchise in eight years. Return man and running back Tarik Cohen jumpstarted the drive with an electrifying kick return, bringing the ball out to the 42-yard line.

With 48 seconds to lead the Bears into field goal range, 4th Quarter Mitch took the field.

His pass attempt on 1st down fell incomplete, but on 2nd and 10, Mitch delivered a strike down the right sideline to wide receiver Allen Robinson to bring the Bears to the cusp of field goal range and their first playoff victory in nearly a decade.

Two plays and eight more yards later, the Bears lined up for the potentially game-winning field goal.

Surely this time around Mitch’s 4th quarter efforts would be rewarded.

They wouldn’t be. Not in this timeline, at least.

Cody Parkey hit both the upright and the crossbar, breaking the hearts of millions and immortalizing himself in football history.

4th Quarter Mitch — By the Numbers

The whole reason I created this post to begin with was to investigate whether Mitch was actually a better quarterback in the 4th quarter or if we were all just delusional Bears fans.

One of the most frustrating things I found while investigating this phenomenon was that during the Bears-Eagles game, Mitch was by far at his best in that 4th quarter.

Not only was it one of his better quarters of that entire season, but it was his best 4th quarter performance of his career at the time! Take a look at this graph depicting his performance in each quarter of that game.

Quick Side Note - An Explanation of EPA & Other NFL Performance Metrics can be found here.

Mitch posted a 4.77 EPA in the 4th quarter alone, dwarfing his production in the previous three quarters.

In the first game I mentioned, where Connor Barth missed a game winner, Mitch had a similar 4th quarter performance.

Mitch had a solid first quarter in that rookie season game vs Detroit, but followed it up with two horrendous quarters after that, posting a negative EPA in both of them.

It wasn’t until the 4th quarter that he turned things around and gave the Bears opportunities to stay alive.

Despite the aforementioned instances resulting in losses, 4th Quarter Mitch led to a few iconic wins for the Bears later in his tenure.

In week 2 of the 2019 season, Mitch extended the play and converted on 4th & 15 to get the Bears in field goal range with 1 second left on the game clock.

Eddie Pineiro would knock through the game-winning field goal.

The most impressive of all the 4th Quarter Mitch appearances came in 2020 in a Week 1 matchup against Detroit.

Down 3 scores at the beginning of the 4th quarter, Mitch threw 3 touchdown passes, including this one late in the game, to give the Bears the lead and win the game.

His 4th quarter performance in this game was his 5th best performance in a single quarter that year, his best ever 4th quarter performance in a win, and the 13th best quarter he’s ever had as a Chicago Bear.

The graph below shows his performance by quarter in that game.

A Bears fan’s dream or just a delusion?

Mitch had some spectacular moments in the 4th quarter. Regardless of how you view his time in Chicago, he managed to string together some impressive plays towards the end of games, whether they won or lost.

It makes perfect sense that in those games, especially the ones that we remember, Mitch not only amazed us on the screen but on the stat sheet as well.

And though I’ve done my best to choose some of his greatest and most memorable 4th quarter moments, I couldn’t go without sharing his career numbers by quarter.

Below, you can see both his total EPA by quarter and his EPA/Play by quarter.

Yea, so we’re all delusional.

Not only was Mitch just generally a below-average quarterback, but he was at his absolute worst when we thought he was good. That has to count for something, right?

The 4th quarter was the only time Mitch posted a negative EPA per play during his tenure with the Bears.

Mitch was so bad in the 4th quarter that throughout his career in Chicago, he increased the likelihood of the opponent scoring more than he did his own team.

But he’s still my goat.

Although he was by far at his worst in the 4th quarter, Mitch still managed to deliver some of the most exciting plays of his career towards the end of games. Being so bad in the 4th otherwise makes those plays all the more special.

One of the definitions of a phenomenon is a remarkable person, event, or thing, and by my classification, Mitch fits the bill.

Of course, this is still up to your interpretation, so do with this information what you will. I hope that this read at least gives you some more appreciation for his efforts with the Bears and even brings back some fond memories.

Thanks for navigating the NFL’s Darkest Timeline with me. If you enjoyed this read, share it with a human being who you think would appreciate it too.

Until next time,

Michael

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