The 2024 NFL QB Class

With the NFL Draft just a few weeks away, these next few articles will be dedicated to breaking down some of the best prospects so you can familiarize yourself with some potential future stars in the NFL and sound smarter than your colleagues on draft day.

This week, we’re going to dive into the 2024 QB class. Here are the consensus top 6 quarterbacks:

1. Caleb Williams, USC

2. Drake Maye, UNC

3. Jayden Daniels, LSU

4. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

5. Michael Penix Jr., Washington

6. Bo Nix, Oregon

I’ll break down each quarterback's strengths and weaknesses, college football career, and ideal landing spots in the NFL.

A Quick Preface

A quarterback’s play in college doesn’t always translate when they enter the league.

We’ve seen countless prospects fail to sustain their level of play upon entering the NFL. Johnny Manziel and Tim Tebow, both Heisman Award winners during their time in college, quickly found out how much more difficult the game becomes as a pro.

It’s also incredibly important to consider the environment a rookie quarterback joins. The coaching staff and supporting cast are often far more important to a rookie quarterback’s development than their past performance. Justin Fields is the most recent example of this failure to provide adequate resources despite immense success in college.

With that out of the way, let’s break down this year’s QB class.

Bo Nix, Oregon

Age: 24

Height: 6’2^1/8 ”

Weight: 214 lbs

Bo Nix enters the NFL draft as perhaps the most experienced quarterback prospect of all time, having started an NCAA record 61 games. Bo Nix began his collegiate career at Auburn. He had a relatively slow start there, never eclipsing 20+ TD passes or 3000 passing yards.

This quickly changed on his arrival to Oregon, where he passed for 3500+ yards and 29 TDs his first year there. He would beat those marks this past season with over 4,500 passing yards and 45 passing touchdowns. In his time at Oregon, he passed for twice as many yards and nearly doubled his touchdown total in one less year.

The Good

Bo Nix is one of the best processors in his class, which should be the case based on his experience. Rarely this past season did he make significant mistakes, which is apparent with his 0.6% interception percentage (3rd best in college football). Of all the prospects, I would say he plays quarterback in the most traditional fashion—nothing incredibly flashy, but it gets the job done.

The Bad

Though Bo Nix does a lot well, there isn’t much that he is exceptional at. He is about league average when it comes to his mobility, accuracy, and arm strength. Very rarely do I watch Bo Nix and say, "Wow,” and to be completely honest, I hardly watch him at all. He is, in my opinion, the least exciting of the top 6 prospects, and I find it unlikely that he becomes a long-term starter in the league.

His age doesn’t do him any favors either. He’s 24 years old, which in college quarterback years is closer to 30. Teams are going to be apprehensive about developing a guy whose clock has been ticking. He could benefit from sitting behind an older quarterback in a good system and hoping his time comes, but hope is a dangerous thing, Bo.

Projected Draft Position: Mid-1st round

Ideal Fit: Los Angeles Rams

Michael Penix Jr.

Age: 23

Height: 6’2^1/4 ”

Weight: 216 lbs

Michael Penix Jr. enters the 2024 NFL draft with easily the funniest name of any of the top prospects. At 23 years old, he’s on the older side and has played an unbelievable six years of college football, so you’d expect him to be one of the more educated prospects as well.

The lefty QB began his career at Indiana University, bringing the team back to football relevancy for the first time since 2007. Unfortunately, his time at Indiana also came with two ACL tears in his right knee.

After transferring to Washington, Penix strung together two complete seasons, breaking the 4,500-yard and 30-yard touchdown marks in both of them. Michael Penix Jr. also finished this past year as a Heisman Trophy Award finalist and, in my opinion, deserved to take home the award.

The Good

Michael Penix Jr. makes quarterbacking look easy. He is an incredible deep-ball thrower and navigates the pocket with ease. In the face of pressure, he consistently avoids getting sacked better than any quarterback prospect in the past 5 years.

Take a look at this chart showing the pressure-to-sack ratio of some recent QB prospects.

Pressure-to-sack ratio is one of the few quarterback statistics that doesn’t change significantly from college to the NFL. Penix should continue to be efficient as a pro. He delivers the ball on time, accurately, and with pace at all three levels of the field. If he can avoid future injuries, he should find a home in the NFL.

The Bad

There isn’t too much that’s bad about Michael Penix Jr. other than his age and injury history. However, two ACL tears are hard to ignore.

It has certainly affected his mobility, but he’s managed to play well despite that. He’ll have to take advantage of whatever opportunities he gets in the league if he wants to make a career in the NFL.

I expect him to be taken the latest of any of the top 6 guys, which could mean he’ll land on a team that is more well equipped to support a rookie quarterback.

Projected Draft Position: Late 1st–Early 2nd round

Ideal Fit: Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Age: 21

Height: 6’2^4/8 ”

Weight: 219 lbs

I had the opportunity to watch J.J. McCarthy as a high schooler when he came to play against our team, and by god, that man was the most insane football player I had ever seen on a high school football field.

That has since translated to his college career, as he’s only lost one game since high school. He finished 27-1 with the third-best winning percentage of any quarterback in college football history. He did play for one of the nation’s best programs during that time, but he obviously played his part in that. He doesn’t have as much experience under his belt as a passer as the other prospects, but he’s been incredibly efficient, especially on 3rd and 4th down when it matters most.

The Good

What J.J. McCarthy seems to do better than every other quarterback prospect is win.

He’s coming off a national championship win and nearly won it last year as well. J.J. takes care of the ball relatively well, although he has gotten away with a few dangerous throws at times. He has elite arm strength and all the talent in the world.

He’s young, seemingly highly motivated, and athletic. All these qualities are highly sought after by teams looking to find their franchise QB, which explains why J.J. has soared up draft boards in recent weeks. I think he is another guy who shouldn’t be thrown right into the fire as a rookie and needs to sit a year before starting, but unfortunately, it seems like he’ll slot right into a starting role this upcoming year.

The Bad

Inexperience*

J.J. McCarthy has played in enough games to have the necessary experience, yet his passing volume is alarmingly low. There were multiple games this year and last where Michigan opted to take the ball out of J.J.’s hands and win otherwise. In 10 of his 27 starts at Michigan, he threw the ball less than 20 times, and just this past year, he had 3 games with 10 or fewer completions.

He won the National Championship game with a record-low number of pass attempts and pass completions in the game. A lot of this is the product of Michigan playing from ahead and running the ball, but their matchup against Penn State this year was close the whole way through, and yet McCarthy only had 8 passing attempts.

There is a sizable risk factor when taking a quarterback with such little experience but his age and success so far do seem to be on his side. He is one of the more questionable and raw prospects, in my opinion, but if you ask my friend Graham, he’ll tell you this kid is going to be great.

Projected Draft Position: Top 10

Ideal Fit: Denver Broncos, New York Giants

Jayden Daniels, LSU

Age: 23

Height: 6’3^5/8 ”

Weight: 210 lbs

Jayden Daniels comes into the draft as the most hyper-athletic quarterback prospect since Lamar Jackson.

He began his career at Arizona State University before transferring to LSU and winning this year’s Heisman Trophy Award. He passed for over 3,800 passing yards and added over 1,000 more yards on the ground, along with a staggering 50 total touchdowns to just 4 interceptions.

The LSU QB had an incredible supporting cast around him, which included the projected top-10 pick and Biletnikoff Award finalist Malik Nabers and another potential first-rounder in Brian Thomas Jr. Daniels possesses an impressive highlight reel and was Pro Football Focus’s highest-graded quarterback this past season.

The Good

Jayden Daniels has an incredible feel for the game of football. He is far more than just your traditional quarterback. The LSU product understands his leverage against defenders better than most and it looks like he’s dancing when he hits the open field. His footwork and elusiveness ring similar to that of the two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson.

He possesses an ideal build for the quarterback position and rarely puts the ball in harm's way when passing. He’s a high-percentage passer with arguably the highest ceiling of any prospect in this year’s class.

The Bad

While Jayden has lots to admire, he comes with a few red flags, the most significant being his pressure-to-sack ratio. Where Michael Penix Jr. excels in that regard, Daniels is on the other end of the spectrum. His playmaking ability comes with a knack to try to extend the play even in scenarios where it is best to just throw the ball away and live to see another down.

It’s for those same reasons that Jayden Daniels has another one of his biggest flaws: taking hits. Daniels has a comical highlight tape of taking some absurd and unnecessary contact. Like this one, for example.

His current style of play is unsustainable in the NFL, and he should look to use his elusiveness to avoid hits rather than run into them.

Daniels will also likely play with a much worse supporting cast compared to his time at LSU, and he’ll need to elevate the players around him in order to find success early in his career.

Also, this may just be me nitpicking a bit, but Daniels often throws a very wobbly ball. The worse the spiral you throw, the harder it is for the ball to travel through the air and the harder it is for the receiver to catch it. He’s mentioned that this has been a focus point of his training, but it could cause issues for him in the future.

Projected Draft Position: 2nd–3rd Overall

Ideal Fit: Washington Commanders

Drake Maye, UNC

Age: 21

Height: 6’4^3/8 ”

Weight: 223 lbs

Drake Maye is your prototypical quarterback prospect.

Coming in at just over 6’4”, Maye has the size and strength to stand tall in the pocket and deliver the football. While he doesn’t have eye-popping numbers at the University of North Carolina—24 touchdowns to 9 interceptions last year—his film is a sight to behold.

The Good

Maye uses his size extraordinarily well and doesn’t shy away from contact when he has to fight for extra yards. For someone who is nearly 6'5", his mobility is impressive. His play style is most similar to Buffalo Bills’ QB, Josh Allen. Both possess impressive arm strength, athleticism, and the ability to perform well both in structure and after the play breaks down.

Maye’s game will likely translate well in the league and if he can be surrounded with weapons and a competent coaching staff, he’ll be around for a while

The Bad

Maye doesn’t have many flaws. In almost any other draft class, he’d likely be the first quarterback selected. Though, for whatever reason, Maye has struggled when targeting the right side of the field.

Maye only targeted the right side of the field 22.6% of the time this past year, yet threw over half (5/9) of his interceptions to that side. You simply can’t play football on one side of the field in the NFL. Maye will need to do some correcting to that issue wherever he ends up.

Projected Draft Position: 2nd–3rd Overall

Ideal Fit: New England Patriots

Caleb Williams

Age: 22

Height: 6’1^1/8 ”

Weight: 214 lbs

Caleb Williams has been touted as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck.

He became a star back at Oklahoma when he got his chance as a freshman backup to lead a 28-7 comeback, ultimately winning the matchup 55-48. After transferring to USC, he took home the Heisman Trophy Award, passing for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions. He was the first player in college football with 30+ touchdowns passing and 10+ rushing in back-to-back seasons since Patrick Mahomes.

Caleb is a polarizing character off the field. He paints his nails and challenges many of the gender norms that we typically associate with an NFL quarterback. His off-the-field “concerns” have been blown out of proportion, but on the field, this kid can absolutely ball. He deserves an article of his own and will likely get one after he’s been drafted. If you are reading this some time in the future, I’ll link the article here.

The Good

Caleb makes some of the most difficult throws in football look routine. He is incredibly accurate, can release the ball from any angle, and thrives when the play breaks down, which happened a lot behind a terrible offensive line at USC.

His pocket presence and ball placement stand out the most to me. He consistently navigates pressure while keeping his eyes downfield and looking to make a play.

He showcases his toughness when running the ball and an incredible understanding of his leverage against defenders, similar to that of Jayden Daniels, despite not being the most mobile player ever. He can deliver the ball to all three levels and has a 99.4 PFF grade when targeting the deep middle of the field.

The Bad

Caleb’s biggest question mark is going to be his ability to maintain his style of play at the next level. USC did not run an offense that can work in the NFL, and they frequently relied on Williams’ playmaking ability to sustain drives.

Caleb’s time to throw is another concern. On average, Williams took longer to to throw than any other quarterback prospect since 2014. This is a product of USC’s poor offensive scheme but it is something Caleb will need to change upon entering the league.

The graph below shows the distribution of some of these prospects’ time to throw. Caleb Williams is shown at the bottom.

His pressure-to-sack ratio could use some work as well. He hovers just around the 20% mark. He’s a top-tier passer when pressured but has to minimize sacks to avoid moving the ball in the wrong direction. Holding the ball too long has led to an unseemly amount of fumbles, so he’ll have to abandon some of the habits created at USC that hurt his play.

Projected Draft Position: 1st Overall

Ideal Fit: Chicago Bears

Now you’re more familiar with this year’s top QB prospects, and you can sound like the most educated person at your draft party. Tune in next week, where I’ll break down another position group ahead of the NFL Draft on April 25th.

Thanks for navigating the NFL’s Darkest Timeline with me. If you enjoyed this read, share it with a human being who you think would appreciate it too.

Until next time,

Michael

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